Есть отчет WHO по происходившему в Китае —
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf> Most people infected with COVID-19 virus have mild disease and recover. Approximately 80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases,
13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.
То есть 14% заболевших понадобится баллон с кислородом и маска, еще 6% – ИВЛ/ECMO. На НЕДЕЛИ.
> As of 20 February, 2114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (
crude fatality ratio [CFR2] 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease). The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e.
5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China).
In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1-10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February (Figure 4). The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak.
Почему такая высокая смертность в Wuhan? Они объсняют это именно нехваткой реанимационных коек —
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/xwbd/202002/35990d56cfcb43f4a70d7f9703b113c0.shtml> Why the fatality rate in Wuhan is so much higher than in other provinces across the country, we also analyzed it.
The early stage critically ill patients were mainly admitted to three designated hospitals. There were only 110 critical care beds in these three designated hospitals. The capacity is far from enough.Да можно просто мысленный эксперимент провести. Пусть в Москве 100 коек. Период удвоения количества зараженных — 4 дня. Пусть 10% из них нужна койка в реанимации (еще 10% обойдутся кислородным баллоном в коридоре). Койка нужна на неделю (в реале 1-3 недели). Как быстро большинство пациентов с тяжелым течение болезни начнут умирать в коридорах из-за нехватки необходимого лечения? И добавь сюда смерти от других причин, когда словил инфаркт, но все реанимации заняты.
