⚡️🔥🛢#нефть #IEA
МЭА - ЕЖЕМЕСЯЧНЫЙ ДОКЛАД
Global oil supply tumbled 780 kb/d in December as biofuels production declined seasonally and Saudi Arabia reduced output. At 100.7 mb/d, the global total was down 1.3 mb/d on a year ago, with OPEC supply 2.4 mb/d lower. With non-OPEC oil supply growth accelerating from 2 mb/d in 2019 to 2.1 mb/d this year, the call on OPEC crude falls to 28.5 mb/d during 1H20 compared with December production of 29.44 mb/d. Steeper OPEC+ cuts take effect this month.
Global oil demand rose by 955 kb/d y-o-y to 101.1 mb/d in October and for 4Q19 it is estimated to have grown by 1.9 mb/d versus a low 4Q18 level. We see continued strong momentum in non-OECD countries with China and India demand growing 0.8 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d respectively in November. US demand is flat in 2019. Our global demand growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remain unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d.
For 4Q19 and 2019 as a whole global refinery runs are estimated to have declined by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y. Refining margins continued falling in December due to higher crude prices, and exceptions were largely due to widening sour crude differentials. Global refining intake in 2020 is forecast to increasy by 1.1 mb/d, supported by a recovery in refined product demand, estimated to grow by 0.8 mb/d.
OECD industry stocks fell 2.9 mb in November to 2 912 mb. They were 8.9 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.6 days, 0.6 days below the average. Preliminary data for December showed inventories building in the US and Europe and falling in Japan. Short-term floating storage of crude oil built 4.5 mb in December to 66.5 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for floating storage increased by two to 28.
ICE Brent surged $4/bbl following
US/Iran clashes in Iraq in early January but prices have retreated below $65/bbl as supplies were not interrupted. As the new IMO rules are introduced, cracks for compliant VLSFO made large gains and HSFO in Singapore drew some support on demand from ships fitted with scrubbers. Freight rates strengthened due to the IMO transition to more expensive shipping fuels and escalating tensions in the Middle East Gulf.
👉
ПОЛНЫЙ ДОКЛАД—————————-
👉
вчерашний доклад ОПЕК